2004 Fantasy Team Pontification

Mario Aerts – A former winner of Fleche-Wallone.  Other winners include, Astarloa, Armstrong, Bartoli, Jalabert, Argentin.  You have got to be pretty good to win, but Aerts has not done much else.  He is on a team top heavy with talent and may be forced to work for others, but he comes cheap and could easily double his points.

Juan Fuentes Angullo – Never heard of him.  If anybody wants to enlighten me, please do so.

Lance Armstrong -  An excellent one-trick pony.  Probably won’t win the TdF this year, but will try hard.  Won’t ride much else except the Olympic TT.  Is giving up big points at the ‘world championship for climbers’ (L-B-L), Amstel Gold and Fleche-Wallone so that he can have somebody from Jittery Joe’s potentially involve him in a stupid crash in Alpharetta.  Cheaper than last year but not a good value.  At least he’s a rider that people really like to cheer for.

Kurt-Arle Arsveson – Is supposed to be good but hasn’t really broken out yet.  Phil and Paul always over hype English speaking riders.  Seems like a few hundred points too many to pay.

Igor Astarloa –has proven himself over 3 years as a very good classics rider.  Now that he is unequivocally the team leader for most classics, I expect him do well.  I think he will break even.  This Spainard had a poster of Andre Tchmil on his wall rather than Indurain while growing up.

Jose Azevedo – typical adequate Spanish climber sent to do Armstrong’s bidding.  Inexpensive, but will not have a chance to shine for himself.

Magnus Backstedt – Almost 100 kg.  A real man that an American sports guy can relate with physically unlike those pipsquek (sp?) jockey wannabees like Heras.  Not too expensive, but has been around long enough to show that he is not a star.  A good guy to cheer for without being a dumb pick.

Christopher Baldwin – This failed actor is trying his luck at cycling.  Thanks for the info Mr. Abney.

Sergio Barbero – Help me out someone.

Michael Barry  - a Canadian picked by a Canadian.  No track record of results and top 10 at Worlds last year doesn’t mean much when there are big field sprints.  Not expensive and you get to cheer for one of your own.  The kind of pick that makes you feel good.

Robert Bartko – An amateur superstar on the track who has yet to show himself on the road.  Inexpensive, but no basis, yet, to expect big results.

Michele Bartoli – Egomaniac with a palmares to die for.  This two time winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege (i.e. the world championship for climbers) and the Tour of Lombardy and the Ronde van Vlaanderen (the ultimate classic) has been said to be on the decline by his compartriots within the peleton.  Nevertheless, he won the last big race of 2003 and is undisputed leader of CSC for the classics.  Like the other ‘classics” riders, 2004 gives them an additional opportunity to gain points in the Olympic RR.  Almost certain to break even and perhaps do better than his cost.

Ivan Basso – On my roster for the past three years.  I have never, ever seen him attack and refuse to pick him again.  One of the great Italian hopes who turned pro with DiLuca and Figureas.  Expect a 100% return but no more.

Joseba Beloki – Thanks to Phil and Paul and the TdF, everybody knows about this guy who has never won anything.  A good stage race climber and TTer, he will get on or near the podium in any GT he enters.  Because of his injury last year, he is an excellent value.  One of my ‘have to take him’ picks just to be competitive.  17 of 26 other DSs thought so too.

Daniele Bennati – Franco Ballerini calls him the next big cobbled classics star to emerge from Italy.  Doesn’t have to work for Cipo this year.  Great value and a classics guy to cheer for.

Leonardo Bertagnoli – A little help please.

Paulo Bettini – Everybody in the peleton likes this Tracy Saine-like mesomorph.  I’ve had him on my teams for 3 years previously.  The BEST rider in the world (deal with it Armstrong cultists)!  Nicknamed ‘Il Grilo” (the cricket) because of his explosive jumps that other climbers can’t stay with.  Barely 30 years old with 6 World Cup victories already under his belt.  Figure on 2 more this year.  Hard to do better than last year, but a guaranteed 1800 points.   A bad pick intellectually but good for the soul.

Michael Boogerd – Looks goofy.  Has been pretty good for a long time but hasn’t really won much.  The kind of guy who is always a favorite but never finalizes.  His consistency should get him most of his points back but not really a good value.  A classics version of Beloki?

Tom Boonen – Very young, very good, but still an underling to Museeuw and Bettini within Quick-Step.  This big guy will be a classics champion some day, but not yet.  His class will get him at least as many points as he cost, but don’t expect more than 200 extra points unless the sprinting prowess he has shown in dinky early season races so far this year continues.  I made a last minute switch to add him because of this.

Santiago Botero – An attacking climber and World Champion TTist.  Assuming last year was an anomaly, a great value.  Has an extra chance to gain points in the Olympic TT right after the TdF.

Christophe Brandt – Unless others know more, he’s just a solid domestique and nothing more.

Grame Brown – A&%hole, dangerous sprinter.  Fast but on Panaria who won’t get to race much in races that count.  Cheap and some high sprint finishes in the Giro get all his points back for you.

Dave Bruylandts – I am looking for this rider to really step up to the big time this year.  He can climb well and ride the tough classics too.  Too bad he is on a smaller team.  He should get all of his UCI points back but maybe only 2/3 will be in races that count for this competition.

Oscar Camenzind – This former winner of LBL and wearer of the arc-en-ciel is on the downswing of his career, but is still a rider to watch.  He had a quiet year last year until showing himself at the World’s RR.  Not a great value but certainly not a dud.  He is Swiss so kind of dull.

Fabian Cancellera – A lot of points for someone I haven’t heard much about.  Clue me in.

Ludovic Capelle – Former Belgian National champ was injured last year, but I haven’t seen any reason to expect a big return on his costs.

Sandy Casar – Young, French climber who I thought might be a great pick last year but only ended up being a middling pick.  Might be a good value if he breaks out.  I had him as Chavanel’s equal last year but Chavanel did much better.

Jimmy Casper – He has been the next sprinting sensation for the last 4 years and has yet to prove himself.  He’ll get his points back but don’t expect him to be able to keep up with Cipo, Pettachi, Cooke and McKewen.

Pietro Cauchiolli – An all-arounder who made the podium at the Giro a few years ago.  Injured for most of last year (too bad Jason), but did very well after recuperating.  I think he is a great value likely to at least double what he cost.

Mirko Celestino – Think Davide Rebellin, but less so.  This very good and consistent one-day rider always gets points but hardly ever wins.  Lots of stars already on Saeco, so it’s tough for him to get the help he needs.  I heard through the grapevine that DiLuca won’t pass him the rolls at the communal dinner table anymore and vice versa.  May have to leave if DiLuca stays.  A good rider who can get all his ~1200 points back, but don’t expect much more.  Coolest first name in the bunch.

Sylvian Chavanel -  Young, French climber who performed better than Casar.  Will win a lot of smaller races and do OK in bigger ones.  Might find it hard to get all his points back in our competition.

Mario Cipollini – Not yet over the hill.  He actually did well in Milan-San Remo and won several stages at the Giro.  His team was not invited to the TdF or Vuelta, so he didn’t get a lot of points.  A great value you would think at <500 points, but his team is now division 2.  He’ll get to ride the Giro again and the world Cup races where he has a chance (MSR, RVV, HEW, Paris-Tours) but won’t have the chances that the other big sprinters will.  Still a good pick and likely to bring in more than he cost.  I think he’s kind of weird looking, but definitely cool.

Aurein Clerc - This young (22), Swiss sprinter was hand picked by Lefevre at Quick-Step.  They took it easy on him last year and will hopefully let him out to run this year.  His best years are still way in the future, but he’s cheap now.

Salvatorre Commesso – Nicknamed ‘Toto’ because he looks like a pudgy, little dog.  A fun-loving guy who was suspended for having a little blow in the glove compartment of his Ferrari.  A two-time Italian national champion.  I like this sprinter/classics rider to double his points this year.

Baden Cooke – Just coming into his prime.  Not as good as Pettachi, but the equal of McKewen and, perhaps, Cipo.  Will ride all the GTs he can and try his hand at some flat classics.  Good sprinters seem to easily get at least 1000 points a year; Cooke is in the ranks of ‘very good sprinters’.  Doesn’t seem to whine as much as McKewen, so he gets the nod.  

Damian Cunego – Young, Italian climbing sensation.  The hier apparent to Simoni.  He’ll likely be forced to work for everyone else at Saeco this year, so don’t expect big points.

Tom Danielson – An unproven American (so people will pick him) in his first year with a real team (on Saturn last year).  Everyone agrees that he can climb, but Ferreti might take things slow with him and you might not see him in any races that count towards our competition.  

Alan Davis – Designated sprinter of his team.  This youngster should get ample opportunities to recoup all his points.  Looked good in early races so far this season but the big boys are hiding their fitness on purpose.

Hans de Clerq - ?

Erik Dekker – After banging his knee at a New Year’s Eve party, this former world #1 had a disasterous year due to injuries.  He is dirt cheap, experienced, and talented.  Great value if he’s healthy.  11 of 26 DSs picked him.

Stijn Devolder – Jay Halgat’s Belgian National team has a lot of no names like Stijn.

Bert de Waele -  see above

Danilo DiLuca – The second coming of Coppi when he turned pro, DiLuca has done well each and every year.  He has won classics (Lombardy) and can sprint away from other climbers.  He has stated that this is the year where he has to prove himself worthy of the Coppi moniker.  Similar, but not quite as good as Bettini, I think he is a guaranteed 1300 points; possibly a few hundred more.

Nico Eeckhout – A good classics rider who loeves the cobbles but was injured last year.  He is on a small team this year and might not get a chance to do much in our competition.  He is on the downswing of his career.

Viatchislav Ekimov –  Had a great year last year with high placings in the cobbled classics but is getting old.  Hard to imagine him getting all those points back, but this tough guy is easy to cheer for.

Davis Etxebarria – Never turned out to be the great all-rounder he started out as.  Starting to get older, but he is relatively cheap.  You never know what these Spanish guys are going to race in so it’s hard to plan how they will go throughout the season.

Andy Flickinger – French guy with an American name.  Big win at Pluoay last year was the only important race where he stood out.  Could be the same thing this year being on a French team.  If he doesn’t get another big win, he won’t get his points back.  He is young still and will improve with time.

Oscar Friere – Twice world champion, this fast finisher quietly returned all of his points last year.  Still pretty young, seems like his ailing back is finally OK.  Worst case scenario is getting all your points back.  Best case scenario is another world title to go along with an Olympic RR title perhaps.

Dario Frigo – Not as good since they started testing for drugs but good riders like him do well with or without drugs.  Decent all-arounder with a focus on hilly single day races and short stage races.  Had a very quiet end of season last year but still managed nearly 1300 points.  Almost certainly good for 1000 of those back this year but don’t know if you’ll get more.  

Stefano Garzelli – See first sentence above.  A bit better in the big mountains than Frigo but not as good in single day events.  Has always been a likable guy.

Philipe Gilbert – help.

Aitor Gonzalez – Took the big money he earned after winning the Vuelta in 2002 and goofed off.  Horrible season only partially to blame on illness and injury.  Based upon his build, you’d think he would be decent in one day races but you never see him.  He must be pretty good to win the Vuelta, so he is a great value at 300 points.  If you don’t mind Spanish GT riders, dumb not to have him on your team.

Igor Gonzalez de Galdeano – A better known commodity than Aitor but never a GT winner.  He was injured last year and he is consistent, so expect him to at least double, and perhaps triple, what he cost.  Excellent pick with the same caveat as the last sentence for Aitor above.  Like Aitor above, I was very surprised he wasn’t on more teams.

Frederic Guesdon – After winning Paris-Roubaix as a youngster in 97, he never really did much else.  That’s not to say he isn’t in the hunt but don’t expect a big return on your investment.

Jose Ivan Guitierez -  505 points for someone I never heard of?  Help me out someone.

Tyler Hamilton – Fabulous year last year and deserved every point he earned.  You’re blinded by the American flag if you think he can come anywhere near doing as well as he did last year.  He wins my award as most emaciated rider in the peleton.

Roberto Heras – Flyweight, climber doesn’t look like an athlete, but he sure can climb well.  Too bad he doesn’t do anything else well.  Nevertheless, he will be somewhere on the podium in the Vuelta again and be top10 in the Tdf.  He’s cheap at <1000 points and a very good value.  I think he will end up with more points than Hamilton (you read it here first) but I still couldn’t pick him for my team.  Everybody else should have.

Sebastian Hinault – Good name but no legs.

George Hincapie – Has he ever won anything?  Oh yeah, a nice win at Gent-Wevelgem and a Greenville crit or two.  One of the English speaking mags (CycleSport?) called him the best one day rider in the world; I almost fell off the toilet laughing.  He is still young and the races he likes are meant for guys as old as he is or older.  I think he’ll actually win a big classic someday and he’ll be in the hunt always but never a prolific winner.  He missed all last spring with illness, so he is a great value.  Even I couldn’t resist picking him.  If Hincapie was a woman, Chris H. would… never mind.

Frank Hoj – This is the loser who blew snot in a hat then gave it to an adoring fan when he rode with Motorola.  I guess because he can put more than two sentences together in English, CycleSport or Procycling gave him his own column.  He rarely places anywhere near the top but he considers himself a classics specialist.  I hope he gets a tapeworm

Danilo Hondo – Remember the year Zabel was hurt so Hondo was Telekom’s designated sprinter at the Giro?  He won 3 or 4 stages.  Now is he the lead sprinter for a big team.  A no-brainer at 300 points.

Chris Horner – What’s with the stupid beard and goatee?  He dominates the U.S., scene but was nowhere in Europe.  Isn’t going to have many chances in the U.S. to get any points.

Leif Hoste -  Help me out someone.

Robbie Hunter – Is 3 years past the time he was projected as a great sprinter.  He is Rabobank’s sprinter when Friere isn’t ready and at 100 points, he is dirt cheap.

Thor Hushvod – Cool name but 400 points seems a lot for a cool name.  He’s not bad, but he’s not a winner either (at least not yet).

Sergei Ivanov – Fasso Bortolo’s version of a young Ekimov.  A strong domestique but usually sacrificing himself for someone else.  Will get you a few points in the Belgian classics.

Jorg Jaksche – German rider on Riis’ team.  I think he was a Beloki’s lieutenant last year.  A good stage racer in the future and may share some leadership duties with Basso.  A pretty good value.

Nicolas Jalabert – Laurent’s younger brother always gets in the early breaks but never wins.  He won’t do it this year either.  Nice that he attacks, not nice that he costs >400.

Fabian Jekker – 600 of the quietest points that I ever heard of.  Anybody else know something?

Tim Johnson – an American.

Bobby Jullich – How come this guy comes out of nowhere to get on the podium at the TdF then disappears, but nobody accuses him of doping?  Decent climber and TTer (at least in the old days).  He is lucky to have a job this year.  Seems like a good guy and never a jerk, plus he’s pretty cheap.

Andrey Kaschechkin - ???

Servais Knaven – Dutch strong man and Paris-Roubaix winner is always good for a win or two in the smaller races and a good placing now and then in the big ones.  Average value, but good guy.

Jans Koerts - ???.  Costs as much as Knaven.

Karsten Kroon – Cool name, cheap.  Anything else???

Seb Lang - ???

Levi Leipheimer – See first sentence about Jullich above.  He was hurt last year but is only good for 6-700 points.  Not as good as Hamilton and Armstrong and might have to work for Boogerd and Rasmussen.  Looks like an old man.  Probably a great value but he just doesn’t do anything for me.  Rabobank told him this is his last chance.

Giovani Lombardi – Experienced animal and one of the leaders of the autobus.  Gave one of the best interviews I ever read a few years ago about how to organize and lead the train during the run-in to a sprint and what it was like leading various sprinters.  Gets his own stage win every year.  Owns his own fashion shoe store.

Gerben Lowik – Almost 600 points for someone I have no recollection of ever hearing about.  What’s his deal?

Jorg Ludewig – 100 points is more like it for a no name.

Nico Mattan – Good solid classics rider and France’s best hope for Paris-Roubaix but he’s on a small team this year.  A lot like like Chris Peers but Peers is much cheaper this year.

Iban Mayo – He’s been good for 3 years but everybody made it seem like he came out of nowhere last year.  Nice thing about this guy is that you’ll also see him attack in some one day races.  I think it will be very difficult to improve over last year’s performances, so he’s not a particularly good value.  

Eddy Mazzoleni – Solid, consistent domestique who can win some smaller races.  Will get back what he cost but not more.

Robbie McKewen – Bad year last year due to some injuries and going up against Pettachi.  I think he lost you ~1000 points last year (cost vs benefit).  He should do at least as well as he did last year.  He whines a lot.

Brad McGee – I can’t believe all the DSs who picked this guy this year.  I don’t know where the popularity comes from.  He’s a decent all-arounder in stage races but isn’t ready to win much yet.  Good track background.  Seems like a few hundred points to many.

Denis Menchov – A good climber who could, with a few top-10s in the GTs get you your points back and then some.  Has not lived up to potential so far!

Axel Merckx – Good name.  Seems to have a good performance every now and then and then disappears.  He will not get any better than he already is.

Lars Michaelsen – Solid, classics tough guy but not a winner.  A decent value.

David Millar – If he wasn’t British, we’d hardly ever hear/read about him.  I wish he wasn’t British.  He actually seems to finally have his professionalism worked out and trains appropriately (used to goof off a lot).  Never going to win a GT but can climb well enough for the smaller races and can TT with the best of them.  He is not afraid to attack during a stage race and is just getting into his prime.  Not my cup of tea but I think he’ll have a better year than last year.  

Christophe Moreau -  Had a better than expected year last year.  He never lived up to the hype he was given starting out.  Not a good value.

Johan Museeuw – 38 years old.  Will retire 1 week after the GTC leaves Belgium this April.  Has been an above average rider for most of his career (never won Lombardy).  He’s cheap and a sentimental favorite for many DSs but he won’t have many races in which he can recoup his cost.  Of course, a win or a few high placings in March and April will do the trick.

Please feel free to chime in.

Nick Nuyens – Don’t know anything, can anybody fill this one in?

Stuart O’Grady – Speaks English, wins occasionally = Phil talks about him constantly.  In reality, he is approaching his best years now.  He isn’t afraid to race hard, he likes hard races,  and can do a little bit of everything better than most, but he is not and will never be a prolific winner.  Nevertheless, he could get a few more points than he costs by years end.  Not a bad pick by any means.

Geert Omloop – I got nothing.

Nathan O’Neil -  Is this the Aussie living in Gwinnett?  Doesn’t cost much but will not get a single point in any race that we are counting in the competition.

Luca Paolini – Bettini’s understudy and best bud.  He still managed to grab 900 points last year working his butt off for Paolo.  He is stronger this year and Bettini has said that he’ll have a few more opportunities this year.  Just remember that Bettini is the leader in every race.  Luca can ride for the victory in every single WC event.  Probably not a great value, but I’ll be glad to see him do well.

Jose Pechorman – Young climber who can hang on the flats too.  Should slowly improve but I can never guess with these types if they get 300 points more or 300 less than they cost you.

Chris Peers – Solid spring classics strongman.  Hurt last year and is on a real small team this year.  Thjey won’t to get to ride much but they have said that most important goal is to get as many UCI points as they can so that they move up next year.  Peers is very inexpensive and can easily get 400 points by the middle of the year.  We’ll see what happens.

Franco Pellizotti -  Climber with the long, blonde perm for Alessio, right?  Had a great, consistent Giro but not much else.  If he really is a good climber, he can get a few hundred points in each big stage race he enters.  Don’t know what he’ll target this year.  Could be a good pick.

Lois Rodrigo Perez - ???

Alessandro Petacchi – Last year was not a fluke, that’s why I picked him last year and 3 years ago as well.  Fastest guy on two wheels.  He can’t really do better than last year, but he will guarantee your team gets 1800 points.  Kind of like US Treasury securities.  It’s tough having him and Pozzatto on the same team.

Eugeni Petrov – Cheap.  Amateur world road race champion.  Amateur world TT champion.  This is the year I had hoped that they would let him loose to see what he can do but it looks like he is still going to be Simoni’s slave for one more year.

Dario Pieri – A littler version of Franco Ballerini.  This stocky rider had high placings in both Flanders and at Roubaix last year (3rd strongest behind van Petegem and Tafi).  He’s got time on his side and is Saeco’s leader for the Belgian classics.  Relatively inexpensive.  Can’t go wrong unless he doesn’t race much after April.

Jakob Piil – Didn’t have the best year last year after a strong 2002.  He will attack and he tells people that ahead of time.  Can’t really tell if he’s an above average rider or good just yet.  Not too expensive.

Jo Planckaert – Considers himself a Belgian strongman for the classics.  The only problem is that he’s too thin to play with the big boys on the cobbled classics.  Stands out to me as Belgium’s biggest crybaby.  On a little team this year, I think.  Not expensive for a reason.

Yaroslav Popovych – Amateur world champ on the road.  A podium in the Giro and he’s still only 24.  Can only get better.  He’s a decent value now but I wouldn’t pick him until he gets on a bigger team, however he might be too expensive by then.  He’s also a GT rider who can also ride strongly in one day races.  Armstrong before he focused exclusively on the TdF?

Filipo Pozzato – Young Italian superstar in the making.  A big guy who can sprint.  More like Friere or van Petegem than Cipolini.  He got most of his 700 points last year before spring classics even started.  He won the first race of our competition already.  It’s unclear if he is going to ride the whole season or if Fereti is going to take it easy on him like last year.  If he races all year, he is an excellent value.

Michael Rasmussen – Ex- MTB world champ.  Specialist climber for the big mountains.  Has recently admitted that he won’t ever win a GT.  Two top-10 placings a year will keep getting him UCI points though.  

Davide Rebellin – Top 10 in the UCI rankings for the past 4-5 years.  Always gets points, hardly ever wins.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Rebellin is the guy who gets points in more races than anyone else.  Won’t get more than he cost you but will give you a guaranteed 1300 point return.  

Fred Rodriguez – American, but better than I originally thought he was.  He no longer has the help and support of Museeuw and company, so it’s tough for him to get positioned where he needs to be and he’s on a much smaller team this year.

Bert Roesems – 422 points?

Michael Rogers – Aussie favoritism shown by P&P gets this guy lots of notoriety  that he doesn’t deserve.  That said, he is young and won 2-3 small stage races last year for Quik-Step, however none of these counted in our competition but they did earn him UCI points that make quite expensive.  Poor value for now.

Jose Luis Rubiera – Good climber and solid domestique in big stage races.  Has to work for Armstrong so he won’t get many points.  he only got 120 last year.  He’s a known commodity and cheap.  OK pick.